#17: Planning, Forecasting and the Hindsight Bias

 Hindsight bias makes one thinks that they are better predictors of events than one actually is. To understand this, we can read newspapers from ten or more years ago and know the unpredictability in the world. 

Map that to the business side of things. We make plans and forecasts but there are so many factors — competition, market conditions, technology disruptions that it is mostly futile. 

How can we overcome this? Take decisions on which you have much more information. Even if you have to make long term plans, break them down into what you are going to do next quarter, month, or even week.

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